Predicted Outcome
The outcome with the highest model probability.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Frozen pre-match forecast
Outcome probability
- Home
- 33%
- Draw
- 33%
- Away
- 34%
Expected goals (xG)
Members only
Create a free accountGoals trend
Members only
Create a free accountHow often did this team win at these probabilities?
Atlético Marte
Águila
Opponent-adjusted form
Atlético Marte
-18.8Águila
-10.1Window and method
Uses up to 20 previous matches in this competition, with ratings trained chronologically over the preceding 12 months. A win counts as 1, a draw as 0.5 and a loss as 0; the score subtracts the expectation based on opponent strength and home advantage.
All teams start at Elo 1500; K=20, home advantage=65, scale=400. This is a descriptive comparison, not a validated win-probability model. Different competitions are not directly comparable.
2010-09-22 → 2011-09-22 01:00:00 UTC · 0 matches excluded for missing or inconsistent regulation scores.
Reconstructed from current corrected results, not a frozen historical input snapshot. A four-hour buffer excludes matches too close to the cutoff.
Recent Form
Head to Head
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See every moment of this match
Goals, cards and substitutions minute by minute are available with a free account.
- Model probabilities Win, draw and loss probabilities, with the breakdown behind each one.
- Advanced statistics Expected goals, form and team comparisons across the metrics that matter.
- Match insights Tactical trends, strengths and the scenarios the model considers likely.
- Track your favourites Follow your teams and competitions and get new insights for them.
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Sample view
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Events
Team form (last 5)
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See the confirmed line-ups
Confirmed line-ups, formations and the bench are available with a free account.
- Model probabilities Win, draw and loss probabilities, with the breakdown behind each one.
- Advanced statistics Expected goals, form and team comparisons across the metrics that matter.
- Match insights Tactical trends, strengths and the scenarios the model considers likely.
- Track your favourites Follow your teams and competitions and get new insights for them.
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Starting XI
Formation
Substitutes
Team form (last 5)
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See the full match statistics
Shots, possession, passing and the full match stats are available with a free account.
- Model probabilities Win, draw and loss probabilities, with the breakdown behind each one.
- Advanced statistics Expected goals, form and team comparisons across the metrics that matter.
- Match insights Tactical trends, strengths and the scenarios the model considers likely.
- Track your favourites Follow your teams and competitions and get new insights for them.
Free to join. No card needed.
Sample view
The figures in this panel are hidden until you sign in.
Match Statistics
Team form (last 5)
Members only
Get the full match analysis
The full model analysis, probabilities and market values are available with a free account.
- Model probabilities Win, draw and loss probabilities, with the breakdown behind each one.
- Advanced statistics Expected goals, form and team comparisons across the metrics that matter.
- Match insights Tactical trends, strengths and the scenarios the model considers likely.
- Track your favourites Follow your teams and competitions and get new insights for them.
Free to join. No card needed.
Sample view
The figures in this panel are hidden until you sign in.
Match probability
Home
Draw
Away
Expected goals (xG)
Home
Away
Shot locations
Team form (last 5)