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Toluca VS Guadalajara Chivas

Toluca logo

Toluca

J. Gallardo 5'
J. Diaz 16'
2-0
Full Time
Estadio Nemesio Díez Saturday, Feb 28, 2026 At 18:00 Est Oscar Mejia Garcia, Mexico

Match Events

Toluca Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
3'
Paulinho
Penalty Confirmed
5'
J. Gallardo
Penalty
13'
Franco Romero
Yellow Card
Foul
16'
J. Diaz
Assist: Paulinho
40'
L. Romo
On: L. Romo Off: B. Gutierrez
Substitution
45'+7
Diego Barbosa
Yellow Card
Foul
46'
S. Simon
On: S. Simon Off: E. del Villar
Substitution
46'
J. Castillo
On: J. Castillo Off: S. Sandoval
Substitution
46'
E. Alvarez
On: E. Alvarez Off: A. Sepulveda
Substitution
46'
R. Ledezma
On: R. Ledezma Off: H. Camberos
Substitution
51'
Jesús Gallardo
Yellow Card
Foul
53'
Fernando González
Yellow Card
Foul
60'
A. Gonzalez
On: A. Gonzalez Off: R. Marin
Substitution
64'
Daniel Aguirre
Yellow Card
Foul
67'
Ángel Sepúlveda
Yellow Card
Foul
71'
J. Diaz
On: J. Diaz Off: Helinho
Substitution
75'
J. Angulo
On: J. Angulo Off: P. Perez
Substitution
90'+2
Marcel Ruíz
Yellow Card
Foul
90'+3
J. Gallardo
On: J. Gallardo Off: Luan
Substitution
90'+4
M. Ruiz
On: M. Ruiz Off: F. Arce
Substitution

Lineups

Toluca Toluca (4-2-3-1)

Starting XI
D
M
D
J. Angulo
J. Angulo #10
M
M. Ruiz
M. Ruiz #14
M
S. Simon
S. Simon #19
M
D
L. Garcia
L. Garcia #22
G
Paulinho
Paulinho #26
F
J. Diaz
J. Diaz #29
M

Match Statistics

Toluca Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
46% Possession 54%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Blocked Shots 4
19 Fouls 15
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
3 Offsides 5
4 Saves 3
351 Passes 411
279 Accurate Passes 338
79% Pass Accuracy 82%

Team Comparison

59.6
Overall Strength
56.6
51.8% Attacking Power 48.2%
54.5% Defensive Strength 45.5%
49.9% Current Form 50.1%
50% Discipline 50%

Under/Over Statistics

Toluca Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
0% Over 0.5 0%
0% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Both Teams Score
0% | 0%
Clean Sheets
31% | 35%
Avg Total Goals
2.9 | 3

Cards Analysis

Toluca 2.1/Game
82
5
0-15'
5
16-30'
14
31-45'
21
46-60'
17
61-75'
15
76-90'
15
Guadalajara Chivas 1.9/Game
74
2
0-15'
3
16-30'
8
31-45'
18
46-60'
13
61-75'
20
76-90'
14

Season Comparison

2025/2026
Toluca
22W 11D 0L | 79:43 | 1.83 ppg
Guadalajara Chivas
21W 7D 0L | 70:49 | 1.75 ppg
2024/2025
Toluca
24W 11D 0L | 89:47 | 1.98 ppg
Guadalajara Chivas
12W 10D 0L | 43:38 | 1.31 ppg
2023/2024
Toluca
14W 12D 0L | 61:43 | 1.5 ppg
Guadalajara Chivas
19W 9D 0L | 48:43 | 1.65 ppg

Match Result

Home Win
Confidence: 49.4%

Goals Prediction

Under 2.5
57.4%

Both Teams Score

Yes
54.2%

Match Outcome Probabilities

Toluca 49.4%
Draw 24.0%
Guadalajara Chivas 26.7%

AI Quick Analytics Summary

Overall Accuracy
52.0%
Market Analysis Confidence Value Result
Over 8 Shots on Target No 95.6% Good ✕ Wrong
Over 0.5 Goals Yes 91.3% Good ✓ Correct
Under 0.5 Goals No 91.3% Good ✓ Correct
Over 3.5 Goals No 77.0% Good ✓ Correct
Under 3.5 Goals Yes 77.0% Good ✓ Correct
Goals in First 30' Yes 73.1% Good ✓ Correct
Over 11 Corners No 73.0% Good ✓ Correct
Penalty Awarded No 72.2% Good ✕ Wrong
Over 1.5 Goals Yes 70.0% Good ✓ Correct
Under 1.5 Goals No 70.0% Good ✓ Correct
Goal Before 15' No 69.7% Good ✕ Wrong
Home More Shots Yes 69.5% Good ✓ Correct
Over 5 Cards No 69.3% Good ✕ Wrong
Over 3 Cards Yes 66.8% Good ✓ Correct
Red Card No 65.0% Fair ✓ Correct
Goals Both Halves Yes 64.9% Fair ✕ Wrong
Possession Over 60% Yes 60.0% Fair ✕ Wrong
Over 2.5 Goals No 57.4% Fair ✓ Correct
Under 2.5 Goals Yes 57.4% Fair ✓ Correct
Home Most Corners Yes 56.5% Fair ✕ Wrong
Goals After 80' No 55.2% Fair ✓ Correct
Both Teams Score Yes 54.2% Fair ✕ Wrong
Over 9 Corners Yes 50.4% Fair ✕ Wrong
Match Result Home Win 49.4% Low ✓ Correct
Half Time Result HT Draw 48.6% Low ✕ Wrong
Most Likely Score 0-0 21.4% Good N/A

Goals Markets

Over 0.5
91.3%
Over 1.5
70.0%
Over 2.5
42.6%
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 0.5
8.7%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
77.0%

Half Time Markets

HT Home Win
29.0%
HT Draw
48.6%
HT Away Win
22.5%

Timing Markets

Goal Before 15'
30.3%
Goals in First 30'
73.1%
Goals After 80'
44.8%
Goals Both Halves
64.9%

Corners Markets

Over 9 Corners
50.4%
Over 11 Corners
27.0%
Home Most Corners
56.5%
Goal from Corner
40.0%

Cards Markets

Over 3 Cards
66.8%
Over 5 Cards
30.7%
Red Card
35.0%

Shots Markets

Over 20 Shots
0.1%
Over 25 Shots
0.1%
Over 8 On Target
4.4%
Home More Shots
69.5%

Expected Goals (xG) Markets

Home Exceed xG
48.4%
Away Exceed xG
47.4%
Total xG Over 2.5
20.1%
High xG Variance
37.7%

Special Markets

Penalty Awarded
27.8%
Free Kick Goal
10.0%
Possession Over 60%
60.0%
High Pressing
45.0%

Additional Insights

Strict Referee
50.0%
Strong Venue Adv.
60.0%
Momentum Shift
30.0%
Underdog Upset
20.0%

Expected Values

Total Corners
9.7
Total Cards
4.6

League Position

Toluca Toluca
3 Points 3
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
0 Points 17

Frequently Asked Questions about Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas